Felix Auger-Aliassime waits as Lorenzo Musetti chases destiny

As we approach the finish line of the 2025 ATP regular season, the drama isn’t over yet.

With seven of the eight spots at the Nitto ATP Finals locked in, all eyes shift to one final seat at the table. And right now, it’s a two-man race between Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti and Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Here’s the math, and the magic. Musetti, currently ninth in the ATP Live Race to Turin, can still crash the party. But the path is razor-thin. He has to win the title this week in Athens. Nothing less will do.

It’s a compelling narrative twist for the 23-year-old, who just last week was on the inside track. That was before Paris, where Auger-Aliassime surged to the final of the Rolex Paris Masters, leapfrogging Musetti into the coveted No. 8 position.

Had the Canadian toppled Jannik Sinner in that final, the race would be over. But Sinner, now the new World No. 1, held firm, keeping Musetti’s hopes alive, at least mathematically.

But the Italian’s Paris campaign was forgettable. He bowed out early to compatriot Lorenzo Sonego, losing both momentum and crucial points. Now in Athens, at the inaugural Vanda Pharmaceuticals Hellenic Championship, the stakes couldn’t be clearer. Win the trophy, or watch from home.

The draw isn’t doing him any favors either. Musetti received a first-round bye but could face Swiss veteran Stan Wawrinka or the unpredictable Botic van de Zandschulp in his opener.

And should he find rhythm, the deeper rounds may pit him against none other than Novak Djokovic — a potential final that would demand Musetti summon his absolute best.

The irony? Auger-Aliassime won’t hit another ball this week. He was initially scheduled to play in Metz but withdrew due to a lingering left knee issue. That leaves him a spectator, albeit one with 3,845 points and a seat at the head of the bubble.

Musetti sits at 3,685, trailing by 160 points. That’s precisely what an ATP 250 title is worth. The equation is brutally elegant. Win Athens, and he earns the final spot in Turin. Anything else, and the ticket goes to Felix.

Should Musetti make the leap, it would mark the first time two Italians—he and Sinner—qualify for the season finale. A massive milestone for Italian tennis, and an exclamation point on a season where Sinner rose to No. 1 and Musetti showcased flashes of brilliance.